Power master plan will strain the economy

Bangladesh will need to invest around $50 billion to implement its Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan, according to a report by Market Forces, an Australia-based global environment advocate.
This investment will go toward 41 LNG-based power projects and seven LNG import facilities by 2041.
The proposed 37,400 megawatts (MW) LNG-based power capacity would surpass the country’s total existing power generation capacity of 27,086 MW. If the master plan is implemented, the nation’s gas power capacity would triple in size, found the study.
The report titled “Expensive LNG Expansion: How Foreign Gas Interests are a Climate Disaster for Bangladesh” was released yesterday at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club. Three local organisations — Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Fossil Free Chattogram, and Dhoritri Rokkhay Amra (Dhora) — co-authored the study.
The master plan for 2024-2050 estimates that the country needto increase its annual LNG import capacity to 30 million tonnes by 2041, which is four times the current capacity.
“By 2041, Bangladesh would face the additional cost burden of importing LNG that would be $7-11 billion per year, two to three times the cost of all fossil fuel imports today,” reads the study.
The list of the 41 power projects was compiled by Market Forces based on data which was available up to 2023, from both internal and external sources.
Speakers at the press conference said some vested interest groups had used inflated power demand projections in different public policy documents during the Awami League rule to earn higher capacity charges.
Capacity charge is the bill the government pays to power producers for the time they sit idle.
According to the report, the estimated cost of the 41 power plants in Chattogram, Dhaka and Barisal divisions will be $36 billion, and the LNG import facilities like floating storage and regasification units will cost $14 billion.
It mentions that the 21 proposed plants in Chattogram are projected to release 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) over their lifetimes (15 to 25 years), six times higher than Bangladesh’s current annual emissions.
“These threaten at least 26 threatened species which rely on the local forests, including the Asian elephant, Clouded Leopard and a scaly anteater known as the Chinese Pangolin. There are mounting concerns over human rights of women and local community members following violations in similar gas developments,” the report said.
“More than one million families rely on traditional livelihoods like tourism, fishing and dry fish, salt production, betel leaf cultivation and agriculture in the Cox’s Bazar region in Chattogram. These critical industries, connected to the lifeline and livelihoods of the people in this area, are at threat of highly polluting carbon-intensive projects.”
Prof Anu Muhammad, a central leader of the National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas, Mineral Resources, Power and Ports, said the previous governments, including those of the Awami League, always served the interests of some global multilateral energy groups.
“Instead of emphasising exploration of local gas, they went for high-cost LNG imports,” he said, adding that it is clear now how the import of fossil fuels and LNG poses a financial burden on the country and is associated with the destruction of life and nature.
He demanded cancellation of the master plan, prepared mainly by Japanese experts.
“We must adopt a plan by local experts who will prepare it in favour of Bangladesh.”
Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for Bangladesh energy at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the government should focus on exploring local gas and implementing renewable energy projects.
“We are under an economic burden due to the import of LNG and other fossil fuels. It is not possible to stop the imports, but we must reduce the dependency on it and improve energy efficiency,” he said.
Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the power demand projection in the master plan is absurd.
“Only 17 years left before we enter 2041, but we estimated our power demand at 65,000MW, which is more than three times the current demand. The previous Awami League government increased the power generation capacity based on such false demand projections and paid capacity charges to power plants,” he said.
He said the existing capacity of around 27,086 MW is enough to meet the power demand till 2030 and the demand will not exceed 27,000MW by 2041. “If we can set up new plants with a total capacity of around 33,000MW, it will be enough.”
He demanded conducting energy audits in all government and non-government offices, curbing corruption, and ensuing the use of energy-efficient technologies.
The report, presented by Munira Chowdhury, Asia energy analyst at Market Forces, said the capital expenditure required to realise Bangladesh’s LNG power plans could instead fund 62 gigawatts (GW) of new clean, renewable power, enough to replace most of the country’s existing gas power fleet, or replace its coal power capacity four times over.
According to the study, Bangladesh has enormous renewable energy potential, with the capacity to install up to 240 GW of solar power and 30 GW of onshore wind.
DU teacher Moshahida Sultana, Megu Fukuzawa, Asia energy finance campaigner at Market Forces, and Amanullah Parag, South Asia mobilisation coordinator at 350.org, also spoke at the event.